PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – A new analysis of United States Census Bureau data shows Oregon counties continued to see population losses in 2023, but officials are hopeful for post-pandemic growth, according to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.
While more counties experienced population gains than losses across the U.S. in 2023, the population growth in the western U.S. slowed, the U.S. Census Bureau said.
The western population decline includes both urban and rural counties in Oregon as the state saw a population decrease of more than 6,000 from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, according to the Census Bureau.
In a post for the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, State Economist Josh Lehner explained the difficulty of framing the population data because they are mid-year estimates measuring changes from July 1, 2022 – when the nation was not entirely out of the pandemic – and July 1, 2023.
“On one hand, these 2023 estimates are a continuation of the pandemic era patterns. Large urban counties, and high-cost metros nationwide saw their population decline, while suburban counties grew more quickly,” Lehner said. “On the other hand, as we wrote about previously, the pendulum is swinging back from the height of the pandemic patterns and so some of these patterns are more muted than a year or two ago. Yes, urban counties lost population again, but at a smaller pace than before. Rural areas, in a broad sense, are no longer seeing relatively strong gains, and many are losing population again, and so on.”
Lehner points out the Portland metro area moved from population losses in 2022 to “essentially flat” in 2023 at -0.03%. This shift is a combination of population decline on the Oregon side of the Columbia River getting smaller, and Southwest Washington’s gains firming, albeit slower than at the height of the pandemic, he said.
Lehner said the “pandemic pendulum” is swinging back as the number of Oregon counties seeing declining population improved from 22 to 17 counties, and half of the state’s 36 counties saw growth in 2023 compared to 2022.
“A few things that stood out to me include the accelerating population declines both on the coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry) and in the Gorge (Hood River, Wasco), and then the ongoing solid gains in the Mid-Valley (Benton, Linn) and in Malheur which has been bucking the rural trends for years, likely in part due to some spillover effects of the Boise metro,” Lehner said.
The economic analysis office also noted differences in data from the Census Bureau compared to population data from Portland State University.
“Overall, it’s great that we have different sets of demographic and population estimates. It provides different looks and insights. The challenge is when different datasets differ. Right now, PSU estimates the states’ population has increased a little bit in recent years, while the Census estimates it has declined a tiny amount. What we do know is that both sets of estimates agree that Oregon’s population is not growing quickly. Our office refers to an overall stagnant population during the pandemic,” Lehner said.
He continued, “However, these estimates do differ at the local level. This final chart today compares the 2020-2023 percent change in county population estimates between the PSU numbers on the horizontal axis, and the Census numbers on the vertical axis. In counties above the dotted line, Census estimates grew faster than PSU, while counties below the dotted line, PSU estimates grew faster (or declined less) than Census.”
Lehner furthered, “Bottom line: Oregon’s population slowed down noticeably, and maybe even declined some in recent years. This impacts the economic and revenue outlook moving forward. Our office has lowered the forecast both as a result of recent years, and reduced expectation of what future growth may be. That said, we still believe a modest rebound in migration is the most likely outlook in the years ahead.”
Lehner said the economic office still believes the state will rebound in migration, adding, “For now, slower population growth, or declines means business and capital investment that lead to productivity gains are even more important than before, in order to raise incomes and drive economic growth.”
According to the Census Bureau, the Portland metro area saw a mix of population increases and decreases from 2022 to 2023.
In 2023, Multnomah County saw an estimated population of 789,698 compared to 794,563 in 2022, data from the Census Bureau showed.
In Clackamas County, the estimated population in 2023 was 423,173 compared to 2022 when the estimated population was 423,118, according to Census Bureau data.
In 2023, Washington County saw an estimated population of 598,865 compared to 2022 when the estimated population was 600,086, based on Census data.
Across the United States, more counties saw increases in population, officials said, noting about 60% of U.S. counties gained population from 2022 to 2023, an increase from 52% of counties that experienced population growth between 2021 and 2022.
“Domestic migration patterns are changing, and the impact on counties is especially evident,” said Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch. “Areas which experienced high levels of domestic out-migration during the pandemic, such as in the Midwest and Northeast, are now seeing more counties with population growth. Meanwhile, county population growth is slowing down out west, such as in Arizona and Idaho.”
Overall, the U.S. Census Bureau found more counties experienced population gains than losses in 2023, with counties in the south seeing faster growth and the Northeast and Midwest seeing population losses turn to gains.
Meanwhile, the western U.S. — whose average population ranked highest among other U.S. regions — fell behind the south in 2023.
