Where will Kitzhaber's legacy be determined?

John Kitzhaber left the Oregon Capitol in 2003 with one word echoing behind him.

No.

A contentious leader who didn't work well with Republicans, he was labeled as "Dr. No" for the record 202 vetoes — only three of which were overridden — that he signed during his first two terms in office.

Yes, he was the man behind the Oregon Health Plan, a groundbreaking policy to provide health care to the poor. But he was also the governor who said his state was ungovernable.

That was Kitzhaber's legacy for eight years. Now he has a chance to change that — an opportunity that most people never get.

Kitzhaber is embarking on a second second term, another four years in the Oregon Capitol to leave a different mark.

What that will look like is an open question. Kitzhaber is hanging his hopes on his plan to overhaul early childhood education, which he says could create a new path forward for Oregon in a host of ways.

This moment could be the moment it works.

The state budget is healthier than it has been in years, and the Oregon Legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic, unlike his first two terms when he faced Republican majorities in both chambers.

This time around Kitzhaber's party holds 60 percent of the seats in the Oregon Senate and nearly that many in the House of Representatives.

Political experts caution, however, that such large majorities can be a double-edged sword: Democrats may be willing to push the governor's agenda if they agree with it. They also could want to go much further than Kitzhaber deems wise — if they get carried away with money and power.

Kitzhaber himself is being cautious in his plans.

While he says he is "delighted" to have Democratic majorities in both chambers, it will take a coalition of lawmakers to pass his education agenda and the changes to budget policy he hopes to make.

Kitzhaber's hope is that in four years, nearly 90 percent of third grade students will be reading at grade level, which will put them on track to graduate high school and potentially go on to college.

It is the foundation for making his 40-40-20 plan work.

That initiative passed in the legislature three years ago. Its intent is for 40 percent of Oregon adults to have a college degree by 2025, 40 percent to have some post-high school education and 20 percent to have a high school diploma alone.

So far, the state has made limited strides in that direction. Its high school graduation rate is still one of the lowest in the country, and just 68 percent of third graders are passing standardized reading tests, far from where Kitzhaber hopes to be in four years.

The budget plan he introduced on Dec. 1 outlines how he hopes to turn Oregon's education outcomes around. It includes money for all-day kindergarten, early childhood reading programs, subsidized preschool and Early Learning Hubs, which are designed to match very young children and their families with services ranging from dental care to abuse prevention.

Former Secretary of State Phil Keisling said third-grade reading is a brilliant place to focus, from a policy perspective.

It sets the wheels in motion for every other indicator of success in the state, he said. Children who can read in third grade are more likely to graduate high school, more likely to go to college, more likely to hold good jobs and drive the economy forward.

"If he can succeed on that issue, the ripple effects over decades will be profound," said Keisling, who now oversees the Hatfield School of Government at Portland State University.

Former Rep. Vicki Berger, R-Salem, also applauded Kitzhaber's focus but wishes that approach had characterized all eight years.

"I think he's smart to focus on 'the big thing,' which is education," she said. "I wish he'd been more concentrated and less scatter-shot in his promises."

Having a good idea does not necessarily mean getting it passed. There is plenty of risk that lawmakers won't like the idea or won't support it.

"It's not a safe bet, politically, but I think it's a really smart one," Keisling said. "I'm hopeful he can rally the support to make that happen."

Former attorney general and University of Oregon President Dave Frohnmayer said a large Democratic majority could mean special interest groups have too much power in 2015. Compromises with Republicans will be less necessary, but that means teachers' unions and education lobby groups may exert more pressure over legislators, Frohnmayer said.

Denny Miles, former press secretary for Gov. Vic Atiyeh, agreed.

No need for compromise and no serious budget constraints could mean everyone walking into Kitzhaber's office next year will want something and expect to get it.

"There's almost more danger if you have your party in control in both houses and the governor's office," he said, especially with more money because it fuels an attitude of, "Gosh, you should be able to fund this great idea I have because we have plenty of money."

"He's still not going to make everyone happy … either you're not doing enough or you're doing it wrong," Miles said.

However, Kitzhaber may be in a position to guard against some of that pressure.

"On the one hand, he has a lot of freedom of action because he (will be) governor for an unparalleled 16 years. That's a political lifetime," Frohnmayer said. "It's an advantage to have some scar tissue when you're sitting in the governor's chair."

Kitzhaber won't be looking at issues for the first time, Frohnmayer said. After 12 years, he will be able to see problems coming before they explode, Frohnmayer said, and he will be more comfortable deciding what needs to be done.

The economy may help him as well.

Political consultant Tim Nesbitt, who has worked with both Kitzhaber and former Gov. Ted Kulongoski, said health care reforms passed in the past four years have helped ease the pressure on the budget going forward. He expects it to remain healthy and allow room for major policy initiatives.

"I hope that we see a budget that's truly a 'reinvestment' budget," Nesbitt said. "It's a word that's used too glibly perhaps, but I think he's setting the stage for that."

Kitzhaber thinks so too. He said he expects revenue to be growing faster than costs by 2019, the year he leaves office, not because taxes are increasing but because the inflation of the state budget is slowing down.

Berger, the former representative from Salem, said she hopes some of that prosperity is extended to rural Oregon. The economy there has not recovered from the 2008 recession at nearly the same pace the Willamette Valley and Portland have recovered, she said, and she hopes John Kitzhaber's Oregon includes healthier rural communities.

"There are huge swaths of this state that are doing terrible," she said.

Kitzhaber has said he wants the same thing.

Kitzhaber's vision for Oregon begins and ends in the third-grade classrooms across the state. There are other steps along the way, other pieces of the puzzle, other policies that interest him. Education, however, is the legacy he wants to leave.

Children who learn to read, young adults who earn that piece of paper, grown men who have steady, good-paying jobs — that is Kitzhaber's hope for what Oregon looks like when he's done.

This "very robust focus on very young children … could be the most significant investment we're making," he said.

It is, for now, the most significant investment Kitzhaber is making in his own legacy, the second second time around.

hhoffman@statesmanjournal.com, (503) 399-6719 or follow at twitter.com/HannahKHoffman