Thousands of college freshman start classes this month at Oregon's three largest public universities, and if history repeats itself, more than half will not have a degree in four years.
And by 2022, chances are, roughly one-third of this year's full-time freshman will still remain degreeless.
"We're mediocre," said Ben Cannon, executive director of the Higher Education Coordinating Commission, which makes budget recommendations to the governor and influences state funding. "There's tremendous room for improvement."
Oregon's graduation woes aren't new and, depending on the institution, the state hovers close to the national average. According to a national study released this week from the Commission on the Future of Undergraduate Education, just 60 percent of college freshman complete a bachelor's degree in six years.
What's new is the drumbeat from corner offices in Eugene, Corvallis and Portland: The state must dramatically boost the graduation rate at its public schools. "This is something important that everyone in the state should care about," said Michael Schill, University of Oregon's president.
In the 2015-17 budget cycle, tucked into the $665 million in operating support, lawmakers set aside $30 million for the state's seven public universities to help keep students in school and on track to graduate.
Some of that money is already out the door.
At Portland State, the school hired 12 advisers this fall, a 31 percent increase from last year, to reach out to students who may be struggling. UO spent $1.3 million in grants on 136 students who were close to completing a degree but were struggling financially. OSU expanded programs to help students in their first two years, when they are most at risk of dropping out.
Everyone agrees the status quo isn't good enough.
"A lot of students are having to support themselves more than say, in my generation," said OSU President Ed Ray, the longest-tenured public university leader in the state, "and the costs are tougher."
Behind each failing stat is a student with a story that led to a degreeless departure. Some started off taking too few courses or changed majors multiple times. Others dropped out due to a family tragedy, crippling student debt or because they couldn't get into the classes they needed. For others, there's no clear reason.
Collectively, the damage is clear. More than 500,000 Oregonians have attended college but have no degree to show for it. Those students earn on average nearly $20,000 less than peers who finished a bachelor's degree.
"They're in the worst of all possible worlds," Cannon said. "No degree, and debt."
Bridget Burns, executive director of the University Innovation Alliance, said Oregon's colleges aren't trying anything groundbreaking that she hasn't seen in other states. What's new is there's "a lot of enthusiasm and willingness to try new things," in Oregon in recent years, she said. Her alliance includes OSU and 10 other public institutions that share ideas and resources to make college more accessible, particularly for first-generation and low-income students.
As schools try to boost graduation rates, Burns said, it's important to track how low-income students fare and whether institutions can slash away at the gap between overall grad rates and those for underrepresented minorities.
"We need to do a better job with the students we've done the worst with in the past," Burns said.
Portland State and other schools have started using data analytics to determine when students may be facing academic or fiscal challenges.
What schools are doing
A quick glance at PSU's graduation rate for incoming freshman proves unimpressive, but - officials say -- also perhaps misleading. The school graduates just 19 percent of its incoming first-year students, and 41 percent walk away from the Park Blocks with a degree in six years, if you analyze the data only for "first-time full-time freshman."
While PSU has grown its traditional undergraduate ranks, it's still a commuter school and a haven for transfer students. Nearly two-thirds of the school's undergraduate body transferred from another school, the highest rate in the state. When considering just PSU transfer students' graduation rates, the four-year number is 58 percent.
President Wim Wiewel said if PSU ever achieved a 95 percent success rate, it would still be failing. "It's very easy to get to 95 percent success rate if you just accept people with 3.7 GPAs," he said last week. "But the point is you want to give chances to students who might not make it."
In the past two years, Wiewel said, PSU has "aggressively" started using data analytics to identify students who may be struggling with grades or money. The school is developing models where it can receive warnings about students who may be close to hitting an obstacle in their education. PSU is part of a Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation-funded group that is closely tracking graduation rates and student progress if they transfer to different institutions.
In addition to the adviser hires, the school has given added weight to "much more intrusive advising" to get to students early rather than wait until they are already gone. PSU's student body is also older, at an average age of 26, and 40 percent of the student body is enrolled part-time, largely due to work.
"We still have a long way to go," said Wiewel, who is retiring at the end of 2017. But after the 2015 legislative session the schools are "on a much more positive path."
At UO, Schill differs from other state colleges by his insistence that the four-year graduation rate is the more important metric to track than the nationally used six-year model.
"We aspire to be one of the great public universities, public research universities in the country," Schill said, "and those schools are focused on the four-year rates." Those schools, such as the University of Michigan, graduate at least three-quarters of students in four years.
Beyond the prestige angle, Schill said, getting students a degree in four years is critical to keeping UO affordable. The school's attendance cost more than $25,000 per year. "Where we turn out not to be affordable," Schill said, "is when you tack on extra years."
Schill said he's focused on pushing students to register for a full 15-credit course load from day one. The administration has posters on campus nudging students to take more classes earlier. UO is also setting up a "student success collaborative," which includes a database connecting each college on campus with advisers so students' struggles don't get overlooked.
He is also vocally opposed to the dominant narrative that student debt is a national crisis. Schill said the average debt of UO students $20,000 to $25,000, and he called it "the best debt you can have," because of the economic rewards of a degree.
"A moderate amount of debt is an OK thing," Schill said. His advice for students: "Don't work all the time and pay attention to your school work."
At Oregon State, Ray and the student success staff are mapping out for students what each year on campus should look like. The school will announce a new capital campaign to raise money exclusively for student academic support programs.
Susana Rivera-Mills, vice provost and dean of undergraduate studies, said OSU is trying to remove barriers that prevent students from moving forward with their education. She said that could include offering supplemental instruction for courses where OSU tracks higher failure rates. "If we can get our students into their junior year, the chances of them not completing their degree is minimal," she said.
Tabitha Pitzer, a 20-year-old junior at OSU studying political science, made it to that third year but is nervous about what comes next.
Pitzer works at least 20 hours a week to supplement her student loans, which she said doesn't cover her rent, books and tuition costs. She doesn't qualify for Pell Grants because her parents earned too much money, but she estimates she'll graduate with roughly $30,000 in debt regardless.
While many OSU students graduate in five years because they took a term off for an internship or the degree program includes a more intense coursehold, Pitzer expects to take five years to graduate because she's been taking 12 credits to get by instead of the recommended 15. While she loves OSU, the five-year path isn't what she envisioned. "When you're going to school, school should be your main priority."
Students ride bicycles on 13th Avenue in Eugene on the University of Oregon's campus.
What could happen next year
Oregon and Oregon State both have ambitious goals to boost graduation rates. The former hopes to raise its four-year rate to 60 percent by 2020. But that, Schill said "is not good enough."
Ray wants to boost OSU's six-year graduation rate to 70 percent by 2020.
The president, who signed a five-year contract last year, said he will forgo his own raises each year in favor of supporting student programs for the remainder of his tenure.
His entire focus will be on boosting student graduation rates, he said. "I am on this, because I am not satisfied. This is my biggest regret to this point."
Both Ray and Schill say the state can't afford to go backward and cut funding following the education gains from the 2015 Legislature. Schools are worried about a potential revenue shortfall of more than $1 billion due to public pension obligations.
But the schools are asking for $943 million in state investment next year, a 42 percent increase from current spending levels
Universities also have a financial incentive to boost graduation rates.
Last year, the state changed the formula of how it pays schools. Instead of basing state support strictly on the number of students enrolled, public universities will increasingly be rewarded based on how many students graduate.
That outcomes-based model will be phased in over the next three years and includes extra credit for the performance of minority, low-income and rural and veteran students and for degrees in high-demand fields such as science, technology engineering and math, health professions and bilingual education.
-- Andrew Theen
atheen@oregonian.com
503-294-4026
@andrewtheen