How might Oregon's fall 2018 initiatives impact the economy? Tough to say

Oregon's Capitol Building in Salem.(File photo)

State officials are drafting explanations for the ballot measures Oregonians will see in their voter's pamphlets this fall, including how the measures might affect the state financially.

Initiative Petition 31 would amend Oregon's Constitution to require a three-fifths supermajority vote in the Legislature to trim tax breaks or raise fees. Initiative Petition 37 would amend the state Constitution to ban taxes on food.

They are also delving into how two other initiatives – one that would ban state funding for abortions, the other that would scrap the state's sanctuary law – might affect the state's economy and government. Initiative Petition 22, which would repeal Oregon's sanctuary law, qualified for the ballot on Tuesday afternoon; elections workers are still verifying signatures gathered for the anti-abortion proposal, Initiative Petition 1.

A fifth proposal on the ballot, referred to voters by Oregon lawmakers, would allow local governments to issue bonds to pay for affordable housing projects that involve nonprofits or other nongovernmental entities. It's known as Referral 401.

The financial impacts of the three initiatives and the housing referral that will appear on the fall ballot proved difficult to predict, a state economist and finance staffers told the five-member committee writing the economic impact statements on Tuesday.

"We conclude the five measures either do not have such effects or it is not feasible to produce reliable impact estimates, generally due to their prospective nature," legislative revenue officer Chris Allanach wrote in a memorandum.

One exception was the initiative that would prohibit state funding for abortion, which is currently covered by Oregon's Medicaid program and public employees' health insurance. According to a draft financial impact statement, it could result in a net annual cost to the state of $19.3 million due to increased births and the need for health care, food stamps and other support for low-income families. At the same time, the state could receive an additional $14.5 million annually from the federal government for those programs.

The state's Financial Estimate Committee, which includes the state treasurer, secretary of state, two agency directors and a local government representative, is accepting public comments on the draft statements until 2 p.m. July 24. Oregonians can send their comments to elections.sos@oregon.gov .

Committees composed of supporters, opponents and neutral parties on the initiatives are set to begin Friday writing voter's pamphlet explanatory statements detailing what the initiatives would do. More information about that process is posted online at sos.oregon.gov/elections.

-- Hillary Borrud

503-294-4034; @hborrud

If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.