Portland officials are asking voters to renew a 10 cent-per-gallon gas tax for road repairs next month — and crossing their fingers that residents don’t opt to instead widen a looming transportation budget gap.
The gas tax, first approved by voters in 2016 and handily renewed in 2020, is a key source of funding for road maintenance and repairs, including repaving roads, filling potholes and making safety improvements to routes where children walk or bike to school.
If approved again, the gas tax Measure 26-245 is forecast to generate $17.6 million per year, or $70.5 million over the next four years.
If not, officials warn Portlanders could soon be driving, biking and walking on roads in increasing states of disrepair.
“These dollars account for about one-third of the money I have to do basic maintenance out there. So should this measure fail at the ballot box, you should expect road maintenance to get worse by about 33%,” said Portland City Commissioner Mingus Mapps, who oversees the Portland Bureau of Transportation.
Mapps said that, with voters frustrated with the current state of city roads, he expects the measure to pass. The rate hasn’t changed since it was first implemented in 2016. According to campaign finance records, the Fix Our Streets Portland campaign has raised nearly $30,000 in support of the measure and has spent $18,000. The largest donor to the campaign is the labor union AFSCME Council 75, which has contributed $15,000.
The measure has no organized opposition, but the Taxpayers Association of Oregon filed a Voters’ Pamphlet statement opposing the measure. The organization cited “wasted” tax dollars on projects like the Tilikum Crossing and Blumenauer Bridge, neither of which allows cars.
Even so, the measure might be up against a populace skeptical of taxes and sensitive to several years of rising costs. After Mayor Ted Wheeler proposed a one-year moratorium on tax and utility increases last May, the city council rolled back utility rate increases, a planned parking meter increase and some service development charges.
Chris Shortell, a professor of political science at Portland State University, said voters are more likely to support a renewal than a new tax. The gas tax itself won only 53% of the vote when adopted in 2016 but had 77% approval when it was up for renewal in 2020.
“It’s not that people suddenly love the gas tax,” Shortell said, “but they already have the cost built in, so they’re more OK with allowing that to continue.”
On the flip side, Shortell said, gas prices are one of the most visible drivers of inflation — so a vote to keep a tax on fuel might be a tougher sell today.
“That could change the dynamic a bit,” he said. “But that may be offset if proponents emphasize visible improvements from the existing levy like road repairs, bike and pedestrian repairs.”
The biggest determinant, though, could be the anticipated low turnout of voters this year, Shortell said.
Because nominees for president have already been decided, he said fewer voters are expected to send in ballots. During such years, he said, the voters that do show up tend to be older, of higher socioeconomic status and educated.
“The fact that it’s gasoline, and a link to inflation in the public mind,” Shortell said. “How much of that effect is going to be at play among those people who are actually going to cast their ballots in May?”
The funding from the gas tax renewal won’t spare Portland’s Transportation Bureau from budget shortfall it’s anticipating later this year.
In fact, part of the shortfall is because gas tax revenue — not just the gas tax on the ballot, but also the city’s share of a statewide gas tax — hasn’t grown as expected, curbed by a shift toward electrification and more fuel-efficient cars. Parking revenue from meters and city-owned garages has declined, too, as more people work from home.
The shortfall will likely result in the bureau cutting jobs and slashing maintenance and repair services. That could mean postponing projects like installing or widening sidewalks and repaving roads.
Mapps said figuring out new ways to fund transportation will take work at the local, state and national levels. He said he expects at some point to see a vehicle miles traveled tax implemented. That kind of tax would charge based on distance driven, not gas consumption, so drivers of electric and fuel-efficient vehicles would pay, too.
“The next time the Legislature comes together, I expect that will be one of the main topics of conversation,” Mapps said.
Mapps said his office has found some ways to shrink the bureau’s predicted deficit from about $32 million to about $5 million.
The Portland Clean Energy Fund gave PBOT a grant for transportation projects that will reduce carbon emissions. Mapps also plans to ramp up parking enforcement, hiring more staff to give out tickets. And, he said, the city will begin charging for parking in neighborhoods and commercial districts it previously didn’t.
But even with more anticipated revenue, the bureau will also take on new costs as the city implements a new form of government over the next several years. Mapps said cuts will be inevitable.
“My goal is to make sure the cuts we take impact livability and transportation safety as little as possible,” Mapps said. “But I’ll just be straight with you, given the fiscal environment and policy changes right now, there are very likely to be reductions in service and staffing compared to the levels we have today.”
Even as the city looks to raise more money for road repair from parking fees and other sources, Mapps said the passage of the gas tax remains crucial. “Frankly, it would be devastating to the city if we didn’t renew this fund,” Mapps said.
—Jayati Ramakrishnan reports on Oregonians’ access to housing, transportation and mental health care. Reach her at jramakrishnan@oregonian.com.
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