Oregon came roaring out of the Great Recession, adding several thousand jobs a month and ushering in a period of historic strength for the state’s economy.
Oregon’s jobless rate was 4.1% in September, the 35th consecutive month it has been at or near the lowest point on record. And the state is enjoying exceptional income growth.
Yet new data out this past week show employment growth has slowed to a crawl. The Oregon Employment Department reported the state added just 200 jobs in September.
Job growth periodically spikes upward from month to month but the overall trend has been steadily downward over the past few years, reflecting the tight labor market and a historically low number of people actively looking for work.
This slowing isn’t necessarily bad news by itself – slower growth is inevitable after any long period of economic expansion. And Oregon’s current expansion is among the state’s longest on record.
Now, though, there are many signs the current upward cycle may be nearing its peak.
Construction, which drove much of Oregon’s job growth after the recession, has been mostly flat over the past six months, according to the state employment department. And retail trade has shed 3,900 jobs.
Recession worries remain top of mind for many economists amid President Donald Trump’s unconventional trade war and a slowdown in the number of manufacturing hours worked. Still, Oregon’s economy keeps expanding – albeit very slowly.
— Mike Rogoway | twitter: @rogoway | 503-294-7699