Five Democrats in the Oregon Legislature have filed a bill that would dramatically increase the state’s minimum wage, from as low as $11.50 an hour in some places to $17 an hour statewide.
That works out to a little more than $35,000 a year for someone working 40 hours a week, beginning next year. The bill would do away with existing regional differences in Oregon’s minimum wage that were created to insulate businesses from higher expenses in rural areas where the cost of living is lower.
Although the proposed minimum wage hike has five co-sponsors, they are all in their first year in the Legislature and Democratic leaders have not listed the bill among their priorities. That probably means it has little chance of passing – especially if Republicans were to threaten another walkout to block it.
Just 1 in 15 Oregon jobs pay the minimum wage, according to the latest state data. The hourly minimum goes up every year under provisions of a bill passed in 2016, rising to $14 an hour this summer in the Portland area (and less in other parts of the state.)
Oregon’s minimum wage is due to increase to $14.75 an hour in 2022 in the Portland area (less elsewhere), with subsequent annual increases pegged to the rate of inflation.
House Bill 3351 would do away with regional differences and set a $17 minimum as of July 1, 2022. Annual increases based on inflation would continue thereafter.
Economists have long debated the effect of higher minimum wages on inflation and employment. The conventional wisdom that higher minimums would lead to major job losses was tested over the past several years, as Washington, Oregon and many other states raised their minimum wages while unemployment fell to an all-time low in the period before the pandemic.
However, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded last month that a Democratic proposal to increase the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour over the next five years would reduce employment by 1.4 million jobs. (The researchers also found that raising the federal minimum would lift 900,000 out of poverty and raise incomes for as many as 27 million Americans.)
Democrats had hoped to include the federal minimum wage hike in the coronavirus relief package now working its way through Congress but that appears unlikely. Senate rules would require at least 60 votes to accomplish that and Republicans – who control half the chamber – are unanimous in their opposition to raising the minimum that high.
-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway |