Suzanne Roig has been a reporter with The Bulletin since 2018 covering business and health in the region. When she's not working she enjoys taking her dog Pono out on hikes.
After posting four quarters of solid gains, the region’s economy took a slight detour downward, according to the Central Oregon Business Index.
The third quarter’s Central Oregon Business Index was 141.7, a 1.2% decline over the second quarter when it was 143.7, according to the index, which is derived from nine variables adjusted seasonally and is measured against a benchmark of 100 set in 1998.
In all, the index reported a 9.5 % increase over the third quarter a year ago, according to the index.
One quarter does not make a trend, said Tim Duy, author of the index and professor of practice in economics at the University of Oregon.
“It’s too early to assess concern,” Duy said. “The reality is that this recovery has been strong and it has to let up at some point, that’s what we saw a bit of in this third quarter.”
It’s all about perspective, Duy said.
The housing market slowed a bit this summer during the third quarter, compared to the overheated previous summer, Duy said. There were 525 homes sold in Central Oregon in the third quarter, compared to 540 in the second quarter, according to the index.
Lester Friedman, a broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Bend, agreed that there was a slowdown during the quarter in single family home sales at a time when sales are robust.
“That coincided with a slump in inventory,” Friedman said. “Inventory did pick up through September and there was more than a year ago.”
Also contributing to the slight slump in the index was the amount of money collected in transient room taxes in Central Oregon. Duy’s data showed a decline in the third quarter to $3.7 million in room tax, compared to the second quarter’s collection of $3.8 million.
However, Kevney Dugan, CEO for Visit Bend, the marketing nonprofit hired by the city to promote Bend as a destination, said the third quarter actually saw all-time high average daily room rate and occupancy, bringing occupancy rates back to pre-pandemic levels.
This past July, transient room taxes in Bend surpassed $2 million in total collections for the first time ever, Kevney said.
“What we continue to see is an interest in travel to Bend,” Dugan said. “Transient Room Tax collections are driven largely by the historic highs in the daily rate hotels and vacation rentals are being able to charge.
“It seems that travel to destinations like Bend has remained strong as international and air travel has continued to start and stop throughout the pandemic.”
Hotel occupancies were about 72% for the third quarter, according to STR, a global travel analytics firm. The average daily room rate was $202.86, an increase of 49.2% over the same period the year before when visitors were told not to travel as a way to contain the spread of COVID-19.
There’s a similar pattern in the data for vacation rentals, according to AirDNA, a vacation rental analyst. The average daily rental rate was $277.30 a night in July, a 2.4% increase over the same time the year before.
Despite the conflicting data, the slight dip in the third quarter in the index reflects a growing economy in Central Oregon, Duy said.
The index measures the labor market, tourism, housing, waste generation and the state economy to provide a snapshot of the region, Duy said.
“What we saw in the third quarter were constraints on the supply side,” Duy said. “Some of that will lessen as we go into the fourth quarter. We’re seeing some growth as we end this year.”
Suzanne Roig has been a reporter with The Bulletin since 2018 covering business and health in the region. When she's not working she enjoys taking her dog Pono out on hikes.
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